Global Foresight 2024: Navigating a Fragmenting World Order

The world stands at a critical inflection point. Based on insights from 288 global strategists across 48 countries surveyed by the Atlantic Council, a stark picture emerges: 60% of experts believe the world will be worse off in a decade. This unprecedented convergence of geopolitical fragmentation, climate disruption, nuclear proliferation, and institutional decay creates challenges that surpass any single crisis in recent memory.

Yet within this sobering assessment lies opportunity. The same forces fragmenting the global order are creating new pathways for cooperation, innovation, and strategic advantage. Nations and organizations that understand these dynamics—and adapt accordingly—can navigate uncertainty more effectively than those clinging to outdated frameworks.

The data reveals not just pessimism, but precision: experts can identify specific threat vectors, cooperation opportunities, and emerging phenomena that will shape the next decade. This granular insight, drawn from practitioners across government, private sector, academia, and civil society, provides decision-makers with actionable intelligence for strategic planning in an era of profound transformation.

The Multipolar Transition — Power Shifts and Enduring American Advantages

The transition from American unipolarity to a multipolar world order has accelerated beyond most predictions. 73% of experts expect multiple centers of power by 2034, marking the definitive end of the post-Cold War era. However, this shift proves more nuanced than simple American decline narratives suggest.

American military dominance remains remarkably resilient: 81% expect the US to retain its position as the dominant military power through 2034. Similarly robust are expectations for US alliance networks, with 79% believing security partnerships in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East will endure. These findings reflect the durability of institutional relationships built over decades and the continued advantages of American military technology and global presence.

The vulnerability emerges in diplomatic influence, where only 32% expect US dominance to continue. This gap between military power and diplomatic clout represents a strategic liability in an era requiring multilateral solutions to transnational challenges. As one European respondent noted, “Military strength without diplomatic credibility is like having a powerful engine without a steering wheel.”

The widening gap between America’s enduring military advantages and declining diplomatic influence creates opportunities for competitors to shape global norms and institutions while the US focuses on deterrence and alliance management.

Regional perspectives reveal interesting variations. Latin American respondents show the strongest skepticism about US durability, with 30% predicting internal American breakup—far higher than the global average of 12%. This reflects both geographic proximity to American domestic tensions and historical experience with US intervention in regional affairs.

European views on strategic autonomy remain divided, with only 31% believing Europe will achieve meaningful independence from US security guarantees. Even Europeans themselves split nearly evenly (40% yes, 36% no), suggesting continued debates about the feasibility and desirability of reduced transatlantic dependence.

The Middle East at an Inflection Point — From Crisis to Potential Transformation

The Middle East presents perhaps the most complex and contradictory regional outlook in the survey. Despite the October 7 Hamas attack and subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza creating the highest risk of regional war since 1973, experts maintain cautious optimism about longer-term diplomatic possibilities.

The potential for escalation remains substantial. Iran’s proxy network—including Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various militias in Iraq and Syria—has already engaged in supporting operations. The risk of miscalculation leading to direct US-Iran conflict represents a medium-probability, high-impact scenario that could reshape global energy markets and alliance structures.

Yet remarkably, 60.4% of experts still expect Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization by 2034 despite current hostilities. This reflects deep structural incentives driving both nations toward accommodation: shared concerns about Iranian influence, mutual interest in regional economic integration, and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 requiring technological partnerships that Israel can provide.

More ambitious scenarios receive lower probability assessments. Only 17.9% foresee Palestinian statehood coupled with normalized Israel-Palestine relations, while virtually no experts (2.2%) expect Israel-Iran normalization. These findings suggest that while conflict management remains possible, comprehensive peace settlements face enormous obstacles.

The Iranian nuclear question looms over all regional calculations. 73.5% identify Iran as the most likely new nuclear power, with cascading implications for regional stability. Saudi Arabia (39.6%), South Korea (25.4%), and Japan (19.3%) follow as potential proliferation risks, reflecting the security dilemmas that Iranian nuclear capability would create across multiple regions.

Ukraine, Russia, and the European Security Architecture

The war in Ukraine has settled into a grinding attrition that increasingly favors Russia’s superior manpower and economic resources. Western support remains the critical variable determining Ukrainian success, but congressional resistance in Washington and European divisions—exemplified by Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Geert Wilders’ influence in the Netherlands—create sustainability questions about long-term aid commitments.

Expert assessments of Russian internal stability reveal striking expectations of political change. 71% expect Vladimir Putin to no longer be president by 2034, with 35% anticipating Russian breakup through revolution, civil war, or political disintegration. These projections reflect both Putin’s advancing age and the structural pressures that prolonged warfare and international isolation create for authoritarian systems.

Ukrainian territorial outcomes show more mixed expectations. While only 6% believe Ukraine will become a Russian client state, 48.2% expect Ukraine to retain sovereignty over pre-2022 territory. European integration prospects appear stronger: 54% expect Ukrainian EU membership by 2034, with 43.8% anticipating NATO membership. These figures suggest that even if territorial resolution remains incomplete, Ukraine’s Western orientation has become irreversible.

The broader European security implications remain concerning. 29% expect Russia-NATO direct military conflict within ten years—slightly higher than 2022 survey results. Notably, experts who anticipate Russian internal breakdown are more likely to foresee Russia-NATO war (38% versus 25%), suggesting that domestic instability could increase rather than decrease external conflict risks.

The Taiwan Question — Growing Skepticism About Chinese Military Action

Expectations of Chinese military action against Taiwan have shifted significantly over the past year, with expert predictions of forcible reunification attempts dropping from 70% in 2022 to 50% in 2023. This change reflects multiple factors: enhanced Taiwanese defensive preparations, stronger US commitment signals, and growing awareness of the operational challenges facing Chinese military forces.

The Democratic Progressive Party’s victory in January 2024 elections tested Beijing’s restraint, but Chinese responses remained within established patterns of military posturing and diplomatic pressure. Experts increasingly view blockade scenarios as more likely than direct invasion, reflecting China’s advantages in naval and coast guard capabilities that could strangle Taiwan economically without the massive casualties associated with amphibious assault.

Long-term Chinese political stability appears robust in expert assessments. 86% expect the Chinese Communist Party to remain in power through 2034, with only one respondent predicting Chinese state failure. This confidence in regime durability, combined with reduced invasion expectations, suggests that Taiwan scenarios may evolve toward prolonged strategic competition rather than acute crisis.

The narrative shift proves significant: China is no longer viewed as an unstoppable future hegemon but rather as a rising power constrained by internal challenges and external resistance. Demographic trends, real estate market problems, and technology export restrictions create headwinds that may slow Chinese growth and limit military modernization resources.

The Ungoverned Nuclear Age — Proliferation, Terrorism, and Eroding Guardrails

Perhaps no finding in the survey is more alarming than the acceleration of nuclear proliferation expectations. 84% of experts anticipate at least one new nuclear state by 2034, with the average number of expected new nuclear actors rising from 1.4 in 2022 to 1.7 in 2023—a 21% increase in just one year.

Iran dominates proliferation concerns, with 73.5% identifying it as the most likely new nuclear power. This near-consensus reflects Iran’s advanced uranium enrichment capabilities, continued restrictions on international inspections, and strategic incentives to deter regime change attempts. Iranian nuclear acquisition would likely trigger defensive proliferation across the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia (39.6% likelihood) but potentially extending to Turkey and Egypt.

The terrorism dimension has grown dramatically more concerning. 20% of experts now expect a terrorist group to use a nuclear weapon within ten years—a dramatic increase from 3% in the previous survey. This shift likely reflects both the expansion of nuclear materials globally and the demonstrated sophistication of terrorist networks in acquiring advanced technologies.

The collapse of arms control architecture compounds proliferation risks: the INF Treaty has ended, the MTCR faces erosion, and New START faces uncertain renewal. Meanwhile, long-range precision weapons have proliferated from 3 states in 1991 to 24 states today.

Non-state actor capabilities have advanced substantially. Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon now deploy sophisticated missile and drone systems that were exclusively state capabilities just a decade ago. This trend toward precision weapon democratization creates new escalation pathways and complicates traditional deterrence calculations.

Cooperation prospects remain limited: only 3% of experts expect the greatest expansion of international cooperation to occur in nuclear nonproliferation. This pessimism reflects the politicization of arms control in the current geopolitical environment and the difficulty of building trust necessary for effective monitoring and verification regimes.

Climate Change — The Defining Threat and Cooperation Opportunity

Climate change emerges as both the greatest threat and greatest opportunity in expert assessments. Ranking as the #1 threat to global prosperity (36.7%)—well ahead of major-power war (24.8%)—climate change also represents the area where experts most expect cooperative expansion (49%).

This dual nature reflects climate change’s unique characteristics as a challenge requiring collective action while creating immediate local impacts. Recent extreme weather events have demonstrated the inadequacy of existing adaptive capacities: Hurricane Otis intensified from tropical storm to Category 5 in a single day, Libya experienced 8 months of rainfall in 24 hours, and the Panama Canal faced its worst drought since 1950.

Supply chain implications are already materializing across critical waterways. The Yangtze River handles 2.93 billion tons of cargo annually, the Mississippi enables $130 billion in goods through New Orleans, and the Rhine serves European industrial heartlands. Panama Canal drought affects 5% of global trade worth $270 billion, demonstrating how climate disruption translates directly into economic costs.

Yet expert skepticism about emissions trajectories remains substantial: 53% do not believe greenhouse gas emissions will peak by 2034. This pessimism about emissions reduction coincides with growing expectations of technological intervention: 50.4% anticipate large-scale geoengineering deployment, raising concerns about unilateral action and unintended consequences.

Private sector respondents show notably less concern about climate risks than other professional groups, suggesting potential gaps between business risk assessments and scientific projections. This divergence may reflect time horizon differences or systematic underestimation of tail risks in financial modeling.

The AI Revolution and Technology’s Double Edge

Artificial intelligence has reached a critical inflection point in 2024, transitioning from experimental technology to mainstream deployment across consumer devices and business processes. Goldman Sachs projects that AI could increase global GDP by 7% over the next decade, while experts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook with 51% expecting positive impacts on global affairs.

However, demographic divisions reveal significant tensions about AI’s trajectory. Age creates the sharpest divide: 56% of over-50s view AI positively versus only 39% of under-50s. This counterintuitive pattern—where older cohorts typically resist technological change—may reflect younger generations’ greater awareness of AI’s risks to employment, privacy, and social stability.

Gender gaps prove equally significant, with men showing 53% positivity compared to women’s even split at 44% positive, 44% negative. Professional sectors also diverge sharply: private sector respondents are most optimistic about AI, while all other professional categories (government, academic, nonprofit, consulting) show negative or neutral assessments.

Social media platforms face overwhelming negative assessments, with 81% expecting harmful impacts on global affairs. This near-consensus reflects growing recognition of social media’s role in spreading disinformation, polarizing societies, and undermining democratic discourse. The contrast with AI optimism suggests experts distinguish between AI as a productivity tool and social media as a communication medium.

The weaponization of AI for political manipulation has already begun. Chinese social media networks identified in September 2023 were using AI-generated content to influence elections and public opinion across multiple countries, previewing future information warfare capabilities.

Other emerging technologies receive more consistently positive assessments. Biotechnology earns 79.5% positive ratings, while quantum computing achieves 65.9% approval. These technologies lack the immediate social disruption potential of AI while offering clear benefits for medical treatment, materials science, and computational capabilities.

Institutional Crisis — The Legitimacy Deficit in Global Governance

Global governance institutions face an unprecedented legitimacy crisis reflected in expert assessments of their future capabilities. Zero respondents—not a single expert out of 288—rate the UN Security Council as “entirely capable” of addressing global challenges by 2034. Only 17% consider it “somewhat capable,” indicating widespread conviction that the Security Council’s permanent membership and veto structure have become fatal obstacles to effective action.

Broader institutional confidence remains weak but variable. The International Monetary Fund receives 58.4% confidence ratings, the World Bank 57.9%, and the G7 55.8%—figures that represent qualified support rather than strong endorsement. BRICS, despite its expansion and growing economic weight, garners only 22.1% confidence, suggesting that alternatives to Western-led institutions have not yet proven their effectiveness.

Security Council reform faces political obstacles that expert assessment confirms. While those confident in the Security Council disproportionately expect new permanent members (76% versus 53% among skeptics), the specific allocation remains contentious. India leads candidate preferences at 42.6%, followed by Germany and Japan at 21.3% each, but 43% believe no new permanent seats will be added—a reflection of the impossibility of achieving consensus among existing permanent members.

Regional variations in institutional confidence prove significant. Latin American respondents show markedly less confidence in the IMF and G7, reflecting historical experiences with structural adjustment programs and perceived Northern bias in global economic governance. This regional skepticism may explain growing attraction to alternative institutions and South-South cooperation mechanisms.

Some positive developments provide counterexamples to institutional decay. The African Union’s accession to G20 membership in September 2023 represents meaningful inclusion of underrepresented regions. The High Seas Treaty demonstrates that new multilateral agreements remain possible when interests align and leadership emerges from committed states.

Democracy’s Stress Test — Elections, Erosion, and Resilience

Democracy faces its greatest stress test in a generation, with over 4 billion people living in countries holding elections during 2024. Yet expert assessments suggest resilience alongside erosion, with 37.4% expecting roughly the same number of democracies in ten years and only 5.2% anticipating significant democratic regression globally.

Regional patterns vary substantially. Africa’s “coup belt” has witnessed 8 successful military takeovers since 2020, with contagion effects likely to continue across the Sahel and West Africa. These coups often enjoy popular support due to frustration with civilian governance failures, suggesting that democratic legitimacy depends on performance as well as procedure.

AI-driven disinformation presents an evolving challenge to electoral integrity. Chinese social media networks deployed AI-generated content to influence democratic processes in September 2023, previewing future information warfare capabilities. Traditional approaches to election security may prove inadequate against sophisticated synthetic content that becomes indistinguishable from authentic political communication.

Public opinion polling continues to show broad support for democracy in principle while revealing frustration with democratic practice. Citizens want responsive, effective governance more than specific institutional arrangements. This suggests that democratic systems that adapt to deliver better outcomes may prove more resilient than those that defend existing procedures regardless of performance.

Women’s rights appear likely to expand, with 42.9% of experts expecting the greatest rights expansion in this area. This optimism may reflect generational change in leadership, successful advocacy movements, and economic evidence demonstrating the benefits of gender equality for national development.

The Six “Snow Leopards” — Hidden Forces Reshaping the Future

Beyond headline trends, six “snow leopard” phenomena—rare but significant developments operating below mainstream attention—may prove decisive in shaping future outcomes. These under-the-radar forces could create strategic surprises for nations and organizations that fail to monitor weak signals effectively.

Antarctica: The Coming Resource Competition

Antarctica contains an estimated 500 billion tons of oil and 300-500 billion tons of natural gas beneath its ice sheets. The Antarctic Treaty’s prohibition on mineral exploitation faces potential review from 2048, creating a 25-year window for positioning and precedent-setting. China’s construction of its fifth research station includes dual-use capabilities that could support future resource extraction activities.

Climate-Disrupted Shipping: The Invisible Supply Chain Crisis

Four critical waterways face climate-related disruption threatening global commerce. The Yangtze River (2.93 billion tons annually), Mississippi River ($130 billion through New Orleans), Rhine River (European industrial artery), and Panama Canal (5% of global trade) all experienced severe drought impacts. Traditional supply chain risk models may systematically underestimate climate vulnerabilities.

Super-Reflective Paint: Planetary-Scale Climate Intervention

Purdue University researchers developed paint that reflects 98% of solar radiation, reducing air conditioning needs by 40% in testing. Large-scale deployment could provide significant cooling effects: painting just 1-2% of Earth’s surface might offset warming from ongoing emissions. This breakthrough offers potential alternatives to more controversial geoengineering approaches.

Precision Weapon Democratization: The New Missile Age

Long-range precision weapons have proliferated from 3 states in 1991 to 24 states today, with the INF Treaty’s collapse in 2019 removing constraints. Non-state actors now operate sophisticated missile and drone systems, as demonstrated by Houthis targeting Red Sea shipping. Traditional deterrence calculations may not account for precision weapon accessibility.

Palau: Strategic Anchor in the Second Island Chain

With just 18,000 residents, Palau occupies critical strategic position in the second island chain containing China. The $890 million US compact over 20 years includes exclusive military rights, while a $120 million radar system contract demonstrates outsized strategic value. Small states may provide decisive advantages in great power competition.

Desalination Revolution: Water Security Breakthrough

MIT researchers developed solar-powered desalination systems producing water cheaper than tap water, while forward osmosis technology dramatically reduces energy requirements. With global droughts increasing 29% since 2000, cost-effective desalination could eliminate water scarcity as a constraint on economic development and population growth.

Strategic Implications and the Path Forward

The convergence of multiple crisis dynamics creates both extraordinary risks and unprecedented opportunities for strategic leaders willing to adapt existing frameworks to emerging realities. The 60% expert pessimism about the future should be interpreted not as resignation but as a call to action—a recognition that current trajectories are unsustainable and require conscious intervention.

Critical mineral supply chains represent perhaps the most immediate strategic imperative. The geographic divide between mining and processing (concentrated in the Global South and China) versus consumption (wealthy nations) creates new forms of dependency that traditional security frameworks have not adequately addressed. Consumer-producer partnerships, particularly between the United States and African or Latin American nations, could provide alternatives to Chinese-dominated supply chains while supporting development objectives.

The space economy’s growth from $546 billion in 2022 to projected $800 billion within five years creates infrastructure opportunities for addressing terrestrial challenges. Commercial space activity now represents ~80% of the sector, suggesting that private investment rather than government funding will drive future capabilities in satellite communications, earth observation, and eventually space manufacturing.

Nuclear governance requires urgent institutional innovation as proliferation accelerates and arms control structures collapse. The expectation that 84% of experts anticipate new nuclear states suggests that traditional nonproliferation approaches have reached their limits. New frameworks may need to focus on nuclear security and crisis management rather than prevention, accepting a world of more nuclear actors while minimizing risks of weapons use.

Institutional reform faces the classic problem of needing cooperation from the same actors whose privileged positions reform would diminish. However, the complete absence of expert confidence in UN Security Council capabilities suggests that informal coalitions and alternative institutions may become more important than reforming existing structures. The African Union’s G20 membership demonstrates that meaningful inclusion remains possible when political will aligns.

The gap between US military dominance (81% expect continuation) and diplomatic influence (32% expect continuation) represents both a strategic vulnerability and an opportunity for other nations to shape global norms and institutions.

Technology governance emerges as a priority particularly among younger experts, with 24% expecting greatest cooperation expansion in this area versus only 9% among older cohorts. This generational divide may reflect different assessments of technology risks versus traditional security threats, suggesting that emerging leaders will prioritize different policy challenges than current decision-makers.

The climate-cooperation paradox—where climate change ranks as both the greatest threat and greatest cooperation opportunity—suggests that environmental challenges may provide the forcing function necessary to overcome geopolitical divisions. Unlike traditional security competition, climate change creates shared vulnerabilities that require collective solutions regardless of political differences.

Success in this environment will require strategic patience combined with tactical agility—the ability to pursue long-term objectives while adapting quickly to changing circumstances. The six “snow leopard” phenomena demonstrate that weak signals can become strong trends faster than traditional planning cycles anticipate. Organizations and nations that develop systematic horizon-scanning capabilities may gain decisive advantages over those focused exclusively on current crises.